Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Prediction, Odds & Picks: US Open 2026 First Round
I’ve watched a lot of first-round matches at the US Open over the years, and most of them are forgettable. This one isn’t. When the draw paired Ben Shelton with Tallon Griekspoor, I actually sat up a little straighter. Two of the heaviest serves in men’s tennis, one stage, and a home crowd that’s about to get very loud. This is the kind of match that makes covering this sport fun.
Let me walk you through how I see it.
The American Everyone’s Talking About
Shelton, world No. 9, is the guy American tennis has been waiting for. Left-handed, 23, and built like he was designed in a lab to hit 140-mph serves — he’s the real deal, and he’s playing his best tennis at exactly the right time. I still think back to his 2023 run to the semifinals here; that was the moment he stopped being a “prospect” and started being a threat. Since then he’s only sharpened the rest of his game — the movement, the patience, the ability to grind through a long rally instead of just going for broke every point.
He backed that up with back-to-back Canadian Open titles in 2025 and 2026, which tells me this isn’t a one-tournament flash. His hard-court win rate sits around 64%, and — this is the number that jumps out at me most — he wins 71% of his five-set matches. In a best-of-five tournament, that’s the stat that actually predicts deep runs.
Don’t Sleep On The Dutchman
Now, I’m not going to pretend Griekspoor is an easy out just because he’s ranked No. 56. That ranking is a bit misleading. This guy hit a career-high of No. 21 in 2023, he’s the top Dutch player in the game, and when his first serve is dialed in, he can beat anybody — his 3-3 record against top-10 opponents over the last year proves that. He’s also got a nasty forehand and surprisingly good net instincts thanks to his doubles background. If Shelton comes out flat, Griekspoor absolutely has the firepower to steal a set, maybe two.
But here’s my concern for him: he withdrew from Cincinnati, so he’s walking into Flushing Meadows without a full tune-up. Against a player like Shelton, ring rust is dangerous.
By The Numbers
| Ben Shelton | Tallon Griekspoor |
|---|---|
| Ranking | No. 9 |
| Age | 23 |
| 2026 Win Rate | 72% |
| Five-Set Win Rate | 71% |
| Hard-Court Win % | ~64% |
| Record vs Top 10 (12mo) | — |
| Recent Form | Won Canadian Open |
They’ve never played each other, which honestly adds a little extra intrigue — no head-to-head baggage, just two big games colliding for the first time on a massive stage.
How I Think This Gets Won
For me, this match comes down to a few things I’ll be watching closely:
- The wide serve on the ad court. As a lefty, Shelton can pull Griekspoor completely off the court with his slider, then finish into acres of open space with his forehand.
- First-serve percentage for Griekspoor. If he’s not landing a high number of first serves, Shelton’s aggressive return position will eat him alive.
- The backhand exchange. Griekspoor’s best path is targeting Shelton’s backhand over and over in long rallies — that’s still the more exploitable wing.
- Stamina in humid conditions. Best-of-five in New York’s late-August heat is brutal, and this is where I think the gap is widest. Shelton has already proven he can go the distance here; Griekspoor’s résumé in long five-setters is thinner.
Current Market Numbers
For those tracking the betting side, the books have this priced about how I’d expect:
| Market Line | |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Shelton ~1.15 / Griekspoor ~4.97 |
| Game Spread | Shelton -5.5 (or -2.5, depending on the book) |
| Total Games O/U | 36.5 |
My Picks
I don’t love betting on heavy favorites, but sometimes the numbers just line up too cleanly to ignore. Here’s where I’m landing:
- Shelton to win the match. Short odds, but this is about as safe a first-round pick as you’ll find on the board.
- Shelton -5.5 games. He’s the type who breaks late in sets rather than cruising, and over a five-set match that should be enough to clear the number.
- Over 0.5 tiebreaks. Two big servers like this, I’d be shocked if at least one set didn’t go to 6-6.
- Correct score: Shelton in four sets (3-1). I think Griekspoor nabs a set on the strength of that forehand and his serve holding up for a stretch, but Shelton’s engine and home-crowd energy carry him through.
Bottom line: Griekspoor has just enough game to make this uncomfortable for a set or two, but I don’t see anything in his recent form — or his history in long matches — that suggests he can go the distance with a red-hot Shelton in front of a New York crowd that’s fully in his corner. I’m picking the American to move on, and to do it with room to spare.
