US Open 2026 Predictions: Jessica Pegula & Jasmine Paolini Second Round Picks, Odds, and Schedule
The second round of the US Open 2026 is already shaping up to be the kind of stage where a good betting read can make a real difference. The opening round has given us some useful clues, and two names in particular have caught my attention: Jessica Pegula and Jasmine Paolini.
They arrive at the second round from very different places.
Pegula looks like a player who has found exactly the conditions she wants in New York. Paolini, meanwhile, had to fight through a three-set opener and showed plenty of character, but also left a few questions hanging over her game.
Both are scheduled to continue their campaigns on Wednesday, September 2, and if you’re looking at the US Open 2026 betting markets, these are two matches I would absolutely have on the radar.
My biggest takeaway from the opening round? Pegula looks like the safer bet, while Paolini is where the potential value is. Those are two very different betting propositions.
Jessica Pegula Looks Extremely Comfortable in New York
Jessica Pegula entered this tournament as the No. 3 seed, and there was always going to be pressure on the American in front of her home crowd.
So far, she has handled it beautifully.
Pegula opened her tournament against Romania’s Elena-Gabriela Ruse and won 6-3, 6-2. The scoreline doesn’t tell the entire story because Pegula was in control for most of the match.
Her serving numbers were particularly impressive. She won an extraordinary 92% of her first-serve points, converted four break opportunities, and never allowed Ruse to seriously threaten her service games.
That’s exactly the sort of performance I like seeing from a favorite in the opening round.
There was no unnecessary drama. No extended battle. No signs that Pegula needed to find her rhythm halfway through the match.
She simply got on with the job.
And that’s an important point when we’re talking about US Open second-round predictions. Grand Slam tournaments are marathons. Players who spend three hours surviving their first match can feel that workload later in the week.
Pegula didn’t have that problem.
Why Pegula’s Hard-Court Game Works
I’ve always liked Pegula’s game on fast hard courts because she doesn’t need to overcomplicate things.
She takes the ball early. She redirects pace extremely well. Her backhand is compact and reliable, and she can change direction without giving her opponent much time to react.
That becomes especially dangerous in New York.
The courts at Flushing Meadows reward players who can take control of the baseline quickly. Pegula doesn’t necessarily need to hit spectacular winners every few points. She wins by taking away time.
That’s a nightmare for opponents who rely on establishing rhythm.
I also think her recent Cincinnati run matters. Reaching the final gave Pegula another stretch of high-level hard-court competition immediately before the US Open. She looks match-sharp rather than rusty.
For me, that makes her one of the more trustworthy favorites in this section of the draw.
My Pegula Betting Pick
The early market projection has Pegula priced as a substantial favorite in the second round, with moneyline expectations around -700 to -900, depending on the eventual opponent.
That’s expensive. Very expensive.
I wouldn’t blindly lay that sort of price just because Pegula is the higher-ranked player.
But the straight-sets angle interests me much more.
| Pegula Betting Market | Projection |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | -700 to -900 |
| Game Spread | Around -5.5 |
| Straight Sets | Strong Favorite |
| Outright US Open Odds | Around 10-1 to 12-1 |
My pick: Jessica Pegula 2-0.
I’m not calling an upset impossible. Tennis doesn’t work that way, and anyone who says a Grand Slam match is “virtually guaranteed” is selling something.
But based on what Pegula showed in round one, I see very little reason to get cute here.
If her first-serve percentage and early-ball timing remain at that level, she should have enough control to dictate the match from the baseline.
For parlay bettors, Pegula to win in straight sets is the leg I trust more.
Jasmine Paolini Survives, But I’m Not Completely Sold
Jasmine Paolini’s first-round match was a completely different story.
The No. 19 seed had to work considerably harder against Slovenia’s Veronika Erjavec, eventually escaping with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 victory.
There were moments when Paolini looked excellent.
There were also moments when I found myself wondering whether she was making this harder than it needed to be.
She dropped the second set after Erjavec began finding the lines more consistently, and Paolini’s serve came under pressure throughout the contest. She committed five double faults and faced nine break points.
The positive side was her response.
She didn’t panic.
Paolini created seven break-point opportunities of her own and repeatedly found ways to extend rallies until Erjavec cracked. That fighting quality is one of the biggest reasons she has become such a respected player on tour.
But from a betting perspective, I can’t ignore the warning signs.
A long three-set match in the opening round isn’t automatically bad. Some players actually gain confidence from surviving a difficult match.
Still, Paolini now has to reset physically and prepare for another potentially demanding contest.
What Paolini Needs to Improve
The number I keep coming back to is her 57% second-serve points won in round one.
That’s not disastrous.
It’s just not something I want to see if I’m considering a straight-sets wager on Paolini.
Against a strong returner, those second-serve points can become a serious problem. Once an opponent starts stepping inside the baseline and attacking that delivery, Paolini can find herself defending immediately rather than constructing the rally on her own terms.
Her best tennis comes when she can use her athleticism and heavy forehand to create long exchanges.
She loves movement.
She loves making an opponent hit one more ball.
And she is extremely good at turning defensive situations into neutral rallies.
But there’s a difference between being comfortable in long rallies and being forced into them because your serve isn’t giving you enough free points.
That’s the distinction I’ll be watching in round two.
My Paolini Betting Pick: Look Toward the Games Market
Paolini’s projected moneyline sits somewhere around -180 to -220, while the expected handicap is around -3.5 games.
Those numbers make sense to me.
But I wouldn’t rush to take Paolini at that price simply because she survived round one.
If anything, I’d rather look at the total-games market.
The projected total of 21.5 games is interesting because Paolini’s style naturally creates opportunities for extended sets. If her opponent can consistently attack her second serve, there could be plenty of games going back and forth.
| Paolini Betting Market | Projection |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Around -180 to -220 |
| Game Spread | Around -3.5 |
| Total Games | Around 21.5 |
| Outright US Open Odds | Roughly +7500 to +8100 |
My preferred play: Over 21.5 total games.
It’s not the flashiest pick.
That’s exactly why I like it.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Paolini wins the match while being pushed deep into two or three sets. In fact, that’s the scenario I’m expecting.
The Bigger US Open 2026 Betting Picture
There is a reason the women’s draw feels so difficult to predict this year.
Players such as Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and defending champion Coco Gauff dominate the headline conversation, but the depth behind them is enormous.
That’s why I’m hesitant to call any second-round favorite a lock.
One bad serving stretch can completely change a women’s Grand Slam match. A player can be brilliant for 75 minutes and suddenly lose control after one loose service game.
For bettors, that means the best strategy isn’t necessarily finding the biggest favorite.
It’s finding the matchup where the player’s strengths are most likely to survive the opponent’s best weapons.
And that’s why I prefer Pegula’s matchup profile to Paolini’s from a pure confidence perspective.
My Second-Round Ranking
- Jessica Pegula 2-0 — Best straight-sets pick
- Paolini Over 21.5 Games — Best value angle
- Paolini Moneyline — Reasonable, but less attractive
- Pegula Moneyline — Too expensive for me at the projected price
That distinction matters.
Pegula at -800 may be more likely to win than Paolini at -200, but probability and betting value aren’t the same thing.
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US Open 2026 Second-Round Schedule: When to Watch
Both Pegula and Paolini are scheduled to play their second-round matches on Wednesday, September 2, 2026.
The exact court assignments and match order are expected to be confirmed through the official order of play before the day’s schedule begins. Matches will be distributed across the day and evening sessions.
For viewers in the United States, coverage is expected across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, with streaming coverage available through ESPN’s digital platforms and Disney+ options.
The general schedule is expected to feature:
- Day session: beginning around 11:30 AM ET
- Evening session: beginning around 7:00 PM ET
- Second round: Wednesday, September 2
The final court and time assignments are the pieces I would wait for before placing any match-specific bet.
Final US Open 2026 Predictions
If I had to choose one player to trust from these two, it’s Jessica Pegula.
Her first-round performance was exactly what I wanted to see from a top seed. She served efficiently, protected her service games, took the ball early and didn’t waste energy.
That’s a very good recipe for a deep US Open run.
My Pegula prediction is a straight-sets victory.
Paolini is more complicated.
I respect her tremendously, and surviving a difficult three-setter tells me a lot about her competitive character. But I don’t think her opening performance was clean enough for me to confidently back a 2-0 win.
Instead, I expect another match where she has to work.
My Paolini prediction is a win with plenty of resistance from her opponent, making Over 21.5 total games my favorite value play.
That’s ultimately how I’m approaching the second round: Pegula for reliability, Paolini for value.
And if both players deliver, we could have two very different but equally interesting routes into the third round.
