US Open 2026 Predictions: Odds, Expert Picks, and Bracket Preview for Men’s and Women’s Finals

I’ve watched a lot of Grand Slams from my couch (and a few lucky ones from the nosebleeds at Ashe), but the 2026 US Open has thrown me for a loop in a way I genuinely didn’t see coming. One knee injury and suddenly the entire men’s bracket feels like it’s been shaken up like a snow globe. Add in a red-hot American contingent on both sides of the draw, and you’ve got a tournament that’s impossible to look away from.

Let me walk you through what I’m seeing, what the numbers say, and — since you asked — who I think is actually walking away with the trophy.

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The Earthquake That Changed Everything

Jannik Sinner pulling out right before the tournament with a right knee injury didn’t just remove the World No. 1 from the draw. It completely rewired the physics of the men’s side. Suddenly guys who spent the summer being ‘the other favorites’ are staring down a real, tangible path to a title. I’ve seen plenty of Slams where the draw opens up a little. This one blew wide open.

Current Men’s Title Odds (DraftKings):

Alcaraz Looks Fine. That’s the Scary Part.

Here’s the thing about Carlos Alcaraz that keeps nagging at me: the guy hadn’t played a competitive singles match since April because of a wrist injury, and yet he strolled through his opener against Jaime Faria like he’d never left. That’s not normal. His 24-3 record in New York speaks for itself, and on Ashe in best-of-five, a fit Alcaraz is about as close to unbeatable as this sport gets. My only hesitation is rust catching up to him deep into week two — but I wouldn’t bet against him proving me wrong.

Zverev Has the Draw of a Lifetime

I’ll admit I underrated Alexander Zverev going into this one. As the new top seed after Sinner’s withdrawal, he’s riding the momentum of his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros, and — this is the part that matters most to me — his side of the bracket is basically a red carpet. No Alcaraz, no Djokovic, no Shelton until the final. His toughest outs on paper are Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti, and on these fast Laykold courts, his serve does a lot of the heavy lifting for him.

Don’t Sleep on the Home Crowd

• Ben Shelton — surging off a Canadian Open title, and that lefty serve is an absolute headache on this surface
• Taylor Fritz — quietly the most consistent hard-court American not named Shelton

Both of them live in a loaded bottom quarter alongside Alcaraz, which means we could get a genuinely violent quarterfinal or semifinal before anyone even sniffs the final.

The Women’s Draw Is a Straight-Up Power Struggle

If the men’s side is about opportunity, the women’s draw is about who can survive the sheer firepower on display.

Current Women’s Title Odds (DraftKings):

Aryna Sabalenka is going for a three-peat, and honestly, betting against her in New York has been a losing game for two straight years. Her serve and her comfort in tight late-tournament moments are still the gold standard on hard courts, even with an up-and-down stretch earlier in the season. Linda Noskova looms as a dangerous test, but experience wins out here more often than not.

Then there’s the American one-two punch. Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula just went to war in a classic Cincinnati final, and both are carrying that intensity straight into Flushing Meadows. Gauff’s defense is elite, but a potential semifinal date with Iga Swiatek is a brutal ask. Pegula, meanwhile, has the flattest, most surface-friendly groundstrokes of anyone in this field, and — this is the detail I keep coming back to — her side of the draw conveniently avoids both Gauff and Swiatek until the final four.

Swiatek can never be written off, but her game leans toward slower surfaces, and public confidence in her run here is noticeably shakier. Elena Rybakina’s Achilles issue (the same one that knocked her out of Cincinnati) has cracked the door open for wildcards like Naomi Osaka and the exciting Mirra Andreeva to make noise.

My Final Predictions

Men’s Final: Alexander Zverev over Carlos Alcaraz

A fully healthy Alcaraz might be the best player alive right now, but months without competitive matches is a lot to ask of the body over a grueling two weeks. Zverev has the cleaner draw, the freshly minted major-champion confidence, and a serve built for exactly this surface. I’ve got him lifting the trophy in five sets.

Women’s Final: Jessica Pegula over Aryna Sabalenka

This is the pick that’ll get some pushback, but I’m sticking with it. Pegula’s game matches up beautifully against Sabalenka’s power — she absorbs pace and redirects it rather than trying to out-hit her. Throw in a deafening home crowd on Championship Saturday, and I think this is finally Pegula’s moment.

Buckle up — the second week at Flushing Meadows is about to get loud.